Who will Obama pick?

Obama’s all-important VP selection is endlessly being speculated about, so why not add my take to the mix? There seems to be a number of categories of candidates for him to choose from. However, each category comes with complications. Should he choose a woman? military commander? someone with foreign policy experience? a Washington DC outsider? There are pluses and minuses to each. Lets start with the Outsiders.

The most likely names on the Outsider list are Gov. Tim Kaine of VA, Gov. Kathleen Sebelius of KS and former Senator Sam Nunn of GA.

If Obama wants anyone to back him up on foreign policy, Kaine and Sebelius won’t be his choice. I don’t know about you, but I was less than impressived with Sebelius’s Democratic Response to this year’s State of the Union Address. However, both are experienced governors who will have records of working across party lines. Nunn also finds his way into this category, but I question how a former Senator of 24 years becomes an Outsider.
While he does have experience in working to reduce the presence of nuclear material across the globe, a point that Obama likes to emphasize, it seems clear that he is only mentioned because he is believed to offer Obama a way to win Georgia in November, assuming Libertarian Bob Barr can attracted 5-8% of the vote in that state. Choosing Nunn would also inflame the GLBT community, where Nunn is remembered as the guy who ruined President Clinton’s attempt to allow gays to serve openly in the military. Nunn went so far as to record video of the barracks that our soldiers live in, showing how close they sleep to one another. This was supposed proof that gays could not sleep in the vicinity of straights without violating them? The GBLT community is a fundraising base that Obama is unlikely to want to further alienate.

The category of women overlaps. Here, the top choices seem to be Sen. Hillary Clinton, Governor Sebelius or maybe Sen. Claire McCaskill of Missouri? I haven’t seen McCaskill on too many lists, but she is from an important state and has proven to be a great campaigner on Obama’s behalf. The question that surrounds this category is: Can Obama get away with picking a woman other than Hillary Clinton? Will that cause Hillary supporter who are on the fence about supporting Obama to fall further away from Obama? Or maybe they will come to love the female choice? My guess is, if Obama chooses a woman, it won’t be Hillary. However, I don’t think he will choose a woman.

The scenario that changes this will be that McCain announces his choice first, and he selects a woman. Does this influence Obama?

In the category of foreign policy experience, Obama could choose from Senators Biden or Bayh. These two certainly aren’t outsiders. They both offer positive aspects to the campaign….but has Obama talked too much about the problems of Washington to bring them on board?

In the final category, military commanders with no political experience are probably seen as too risky. The experience of being on the campaign trail, being asked constant questions and always being watched and recorded is a unique one. Campaign gaffes could become a larger problem for this category.

So, in conclusion, I don’t know who Obama will choose as his VP. I wonder if he’s figured it out yet.