60 Seat Majority: Scare tactic or a hope for a better tomorrow?

A new campaign line is emerging: The Democrats control the House of Representatives. They are on their way to a filibuster proof 60 seat majority in the Senate. Therefore, we need John McCain in the White House to prevent the Democrats have complete control.

The Politico reports, “Dems could hit 60 Senate Seats.” Now, I have posted many times about the Senate races and the many chances they have to pick up seats, but let’s not lose sight of facts.

Currently, the Senate has 49 Republicans, 49 Democrats, and 2 Independents. Currently, the two Independents caucus with the Democrats, but it would be hard to believe that Joe Leiberman would continue this next year. He has gone from supporting McCain because the war in Iraq is his most important issues and outweighs the fact that he disagrees with McCain on most all over issues, to now attacking Obama on taxes and health care.

So, to reach 60, the Democrats need to hold all of their seats, plus gain 10 more. What does this mean?

1. They win in VA, NM, CO, OR, NH, AK and NC. 7 down, 3 to go.
2. They need to win in KY and MN. MN is looking better and better, but Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has never been down in his Kentucky race.
3. They need to find one more seat in GA, AL, NE, ME…none of these look too good so far.
4. They need to hold onto all of their own incumbents, include a tight race in Louisiana.

So, the Republican message is, Voters should be scared of Democrats in control and should therefore, vote for McCain. Is it credible to make voters scared of Democrats in power. It would seem that this is exactly what the voters want! They want an end to the war in Iraq. They want affordable health care coverage. They want investment in stem cell research. They want lower taxes for the middle class. They want opportunities to send their children to college. They want investment in renewable energy sources. So, while Republicans make the case that we need to be scared of Democrats, voters are sending the message that they’ve had enough of Republican policies.

Instead of being scared of Democrats, maybe voters across the country will come together to help candidates like Scott Kleeb defeat former Bush Administration insider Mike Johanns, and make the 60 seat majority a reality, instead of just a scare tactic.

Will the GOP win any of the targeted Senate races?

They are in trouble in North Carolina….

9-29-08: Hagan 46, Dole 38 (Note: This poll also has Obama beating McCain by 2. Is it an outlier, or is McCain in trouble too?)

They are in trouble in Oregon…

9-26-08: Merkley 45, Smith 40

They are in trouble in Colorado…

9-23-08: Udall 48, Schaffer 40

They are in trouble in New Mexico…

9-22-08: Udall 57, Pearce 37

New Hampshire is still a toss-up with numbers going back and forth…

9-22-08: Shaheen 48, Sununu 44

It would be hard to believe that the indicted Ted Stevens is not in trouble in Alaska…

9-19-08: Begich 50, Stevens 44

And in Virginia, you can’t really call it a targeted race, but it is one that is switching from GOP to Dem….

9-26-08: Warner 60, Gilmore 34

The Democrats would love to win 10 Senate seats. This is a near unheard of feat, but one that would give them 60 seats. This would require 3 more seats. Where will they come from?

Well, Minnesota is an option. One recent poll shows that Kentucky is a possibility. Where will the third come from? Nebraska? Maine? South Carolina? Alabama? Tennessee? Kansas? Georgia? None of these seem too likely at this point.

And a final note: The Democrats have one seat in danger, in Louisiana.

Not Just A One Man Scandal

As you have probably already heard, Sen. Ted Stevens of Alaska has been indicted on 7 counts, involving his failure to report gifts and services that were given to him. While he await the verdict in this manner, it is never too soon to see who else can be taken down with Stevens.

No good scandal takes down just one man!

So, while Stevens is accepting gifts, valued at hundreds of thousands of dollars, who is Stevens giving his money to?

Like so many other politicians, Stevens has a Leadership PAC that allows him to raise more money and distribute it among his colleagues. And it looks like more than a few of his friends are currently campaigning for the Senate this year:

Norm Coleman of MN received $10,000
John Cornyn of Texas received $5,000
Elizabeth Dole of NC received $10,000
Mike Johanns of NE received $1,000
Mitch McConnell of KY received $7,500
Gordon Smith of Oregon received $10,000
And Steven’s PAC was even generous enough to give Ted Steven’s $5,000.
Read the complete list at Open Secrets: http://www.opensecrets.org/pacs/pacgot.php?cmte=C00331827&cycle=2008

Just for fun, lets looks at which one of these lucky recipients returned the money back to Stevens!

Norm Coleman’s PAC gave $5,000 to Stevens.
John Cornyn’s PAC failed to donate to Stevens.
Elizabeth Dole’s PAC failed to donate back to Stevens.
Mike Johanns is not a current officeholder and does not currently have an active PAC.
Mitch McConnell gave $10,000 to Stevens.
Gordon Smith gave $10,000 to Stevens.

This is a great way to fundraise. Since FEC law prevents your PAC from donating more than $10,000 to you own campaign, you can just donate money to other candidates and have their PACs give the money back to you! Genius!

**Note: All of this data is only for the 2008 cycle and can easily be viewed at OpenSecrets.org

Which candidate will be the first to rid itself of Steven’s money?

Senate Update: Will the Dems make it to 60?

Senate Dems are smiling in states that were thought to be competitive and even in states where Republicans may have felt safe.

 

In Nebraska, Democrat Scott Kleeb outraised Republican Mike Johanns in the last quarter.  While the difference was only $17,000 ($700,000 to $683,000), this must have shocked conventional wisdom.  Johanns is the ultimate insider.  He’s been governor and worked in the Bush White House.  Despite the fundraising success, Kleeb still has work to do in the polls.  The latest poll I have seen, puts Johanns up by 27 points, with a margin of error of 4.5%.  However, this poll is now a month old and Kleeb’s fundraising buzz could help close the gap.  I look forward to seeing the next poll. 

In Alaska, Democrat Mark Begich is challenging Ted Stevens.  Polls are showing that voters have grown tired of the 84 year old incumbent.  In the 2 latest polls, Begich leads by 8 points and 2 points.

July polling shows the Democrats holding and picking up a number of seats. It shows Democrats picking up seats in MN, VA, NH, CO, AK while holding their seats in NJ, SD, MI, LA, and IL

Do as I say, not as I do

Senators David Vitter and Larry Craig have decided to stand up for the sanctity of marriage. They have both co-sponsored legislation to amend the United States Constitution to ensure that marriage be between a man and a woman. You may remember Sen. Vitter holding his press conference apologizing for his extramarital activities. And of course, none of us have forgotten the saga of Larry Craig in the men’s room. It seems their own personal unions of one man and one woman were not fulfilling.

Here’s the language of their bill:

Section 1. This article may be cited as the `Marriage Protection Amendment’.

Section 2. Marriage in the United States shall consist only of the union of a man and a woman. Neither this Constitution, nor the constitution of any State, shall be construed to require that marriage or the legal incidents thereof be conferred upon any union other than the union of a man and a woman.’.

Oregon is Obama country

In the Democratic primary for US Senate Jeff Merkley and Steve Novick debated who supported Obama the most and earliest. Merkley cruised to an easy victory. Now, his GOP opponent, incumbent Senator Gordon Smith is touting his work with Obama. Didn’t he work with McCain? Is he going to vote for Obama? I guess Obamacans really do exist!

In response, the Obama campaign released a statement to clearly demonstrate their support for Democrat Jeff Merkley in his effort to unseat Sen. Smith.

Messaging tips for Udall

In Colorado, the debate is currently all about gas prices. On the one hand, the Republican candidate, Bob Schaffer has previously been employed by an energy company. He supports domestic drilling. On the other hand, Democratic candidate Mark Udall supports an increased focus on developing alternative energy sources.

In this back and forth, here is the quote from the Udall campaign that caught my eye:

Udall campaign spokeswoman: “While Mark Udall is working to lower gas prices, Bob Schaffer was taking close to $400,000 a year from the oil and gas industry he worked for. Now we know why gas prices are so high,”

The messages that campaigns use have to make basic sense to voters if they have a chance of resonating. The Udall campaign is asking voters to believe that Schaffer’s former affiliation with an energy company is the reason why we have high gas prices. How many voters will belief that?

Let’s change the Udall response: “”While Mark Udall is working to lower gas prices, Bob Schaffer was taking close to $400,000 a year from the oil and gas industry he worked for. Who do you trust to fight against high gas prices?”

Or maybe end with, “Voters just can’t trust Big Oil Bob to put their interests ahead of oil companies”

Can voters be convinced that Republicans are the ones raising gas prices? Maybe. Can voters be convinced that Republican will do nothing to alleviate the pain caused by high gas prices? Absolutely.

Republican says Democrat will raise taxes…..who saw that one coming?

Is he playing a game, or actually running for the United States Senate? I can’t tell. Jim Gilmore, Republican candidate for Senate in VA launched his general election campaign this week. How did he start things off?

Gilmore: ‘Mark Warner’s just like a hungry piranha. There’s just no end to his appetite for the people’s tax money.’

Why not focus on specifics? Why does he choose to make blanket accusations that everyone knows are, at the least, blatant exaggerations? Gilmore talked about the people’s tax money. Well, the truth is, the people overwhelmingly approved of Mark Warner’s time as Governor and are currently saying that they want him to represent them in the United States Senate.

I think Gilmore should spend more time explaining to voters why he deserves their trust…hopefully he will focus on more than just a car tax .

Senate votes…electioneering….is there a difference?

The 5 largest oil companies reported $36 billion in profits in just 3 short months. In response, Senate Democrats attempted to impose an excess profits tax on them. This attempt was killed by a Republican-led filibuster this week.

As this is election season, it is interesting to see where everyone came down on this issue. Only one Democrat opposed the tax, Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, a state with a large oil industry. Technically, Sen. Harry Reid also voted no, but this was after he knew the vote would fail, leaving him the ability to raise the issue later.

On the Republican side, Norm Coleman of MN, Susan Collins of ME and Gordon Smith of OR all voted with the Democrats. Coincidentally, they are all up for re-election…hmmmmm.

They were also joined by Republicans Chuck Grassley of IA and John Warner of VA, who are not running for re-election.

Now the race is on….which Republican raised the most money for Big Oil?

Senate Watch: North Carolina

In my initial list, I somehow forgot about the North Carolina race. Incumbent Republican Elizabeth Dole is being challenged by former state senator Kay Hagan. Hagan looks like she will pose a strong challenge to Dole, especially with the help of red and purple state Senators like Jon Tester and Claire McCaskill. I first heard word of this race during the Democratic primary when I heard that a gay man was running for US Senate in North Carolina. My skepticism of a gay man winning state-wide office was reinforced by his crushing defeat at the hands of Kagan in the primary….but that’s beside the point…or a point for another day. For now, we can settle for a NC Senate race that features two women.